OMP NOW A SWORD OF DAMOCLES
25 August 2016
President Sirisena's swift response to resignations by the SLFP's
Matara and Homagama leaders, replacing Bandula Gunawardena and Dullas
Alahapperuma with Gamini Thilakasiri and Lakshman Yapa Abeywardena,
respectively, made evident the fact that the SLFP leader is not short of
options when it comes to a matter of crisis management in the Party.
We've been stressing the inevitability of this major split in the Party
ever since President Sirisena took that stunning step to challenge
Rajapaksa at the Presidential poll... and win! He owed most of that
victory to UNP, TNA and Muslim votes.
But back of this is an even more politically significant fact in that it underscores the massive extent to which Rajapaksa lost political coherence and control of direction in the shocking aftermath of his ouster from power.
The current state of affairs in the government and especially in SLFP affairs clearly shows that the current President is more in control of his wits, and hence in his strategic moves, than Rajapaksa, the former President is. In this game of political chess, the President is an easy frontrunner...at least for now. What can be more unnerving for Rajapaksa and the Joint Opposition is the fact that, even though Sirisena at that time had no moral or constitutional right to the SLFP leadership, especially in the context of the SLFP Constitution, he has grabbed the chance that history handed him on a platter when Rajapaksa relinquished the SLFP leadership to him without a fight. By relinquishing that position Rajapaksa squandered his only weapon to make a come-back bid. Today, Sirisena has assiduously and diligently built on that opportunity and has asserted himself as the real leader of the SLFP. Rajapaksa is left with a residual of the Party, and some leftist members, making up the JO which has become a less than pathetic challenge to Sirisena.
So what has happened is that from the comparatively weak position
as President fielded by the real Joint Opposition comprising the UNP,
SLMC, TNA and other minor parties, Sirisena has with almost a remarkable
nonchalance ambled into the position of being paradoxically the real
leader of the opposition to the slfp while also being leader of the slfp
at the same time...a unique paradox at that!
In addition to all this, the President is obviously also inundated with economic, trade, financial, military and diplomatic support from the West and, along with Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe, would appear to have weathered every storm and emerged as the head of a government that's now seemingly growing in strength domestically as well as globally.
In addition to all this, the President is obviously also inundated with economic, trade, financial, military and diplomatic support from the West and, along with Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe, would appear to have weathered every storm and emerged as the head of a government that's now seemingly growing in strength domestically as well as globally.
History will record his period of transition from one power bloc
to another, under the Sirisena dispensation, as perhaps the most
dramatic in the nation's post-independence history. We wrote six months
ago that Rajapaksa would have to invent a new strategy for a successful
come-back bid. That strategy spluttered and collapsed in a trek from
Kandy that ended in Colombo. If he called the Presidential election and
made the successive 'moves' based on numerology, it's been a waste of
time that has seen Sirisena consolidate his grip on the Party, forcing
Rajapaksa's back to the wall in measured moves which even his keenest
detractors reluctantly acknowledge.
As we go to print, there's talk of what the JO will do, now that Speaker Jayasuriya has sanctioned the OMP Bill, adding it to the Constitution.
This can be most unnerving because of the wide powers the OMP is vested with, which will be used with devastating effect against the former regime... meaning Rajapaksa.
We predict that the OMP will go down in Lankan history as the single most powerful piece of legislation, which the greater part of the SLFP on Sirisena's side voted for. That makes the OMP in effect a de facto SLFP approval of a probe into the role of the Rajapaksas, whether by commission, or omission, in allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity. This is what makes the OMP such a powerful weapon in Sirisena's , Wickremesinghe's and Chandrika Bandaranaikle's hands. And that's precisely why Rajapaksa was its most vociferous opponent. That's yet another victory that Sirisena tucks under his belt.
The Kandy-Colombo trek was meant to rouse a massive public response that could have been used to thwart the passage of the OMP Bill into the Constitution. It failed. 8.1.2015 as well as 1.8.2016, have both backfired. Should the slide continue, the JO could be rehearsing its Swan Song.