Sunday Obsrver Editorial

Stay Home, Save Lives

Sri Lanka was one of the few countries that took proactive measures very early, at the onset of the pandemic to curb its spread. Judging by the rapid progress of the disease in countries such as Italy, USA, Spain and France, Sri Lanka’s early actions may have saved countless lives. In fact, these measures came in for praise from none other than the World Health Organisation Chief Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

Tedros praised the Sri Lankan Government’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak in a telephone call with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and a subsequent Twitter post. The WHO Director General and Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa discussed the latest developments related to the outbreak of COVID-19 during the phone conversation.

In the Twitter message, the WHO Director General said he thanked President Rajapaksa for mobilizing the whole of Government in the fight against COVID-19. “I had a good call with @GotabayaR , President of #SriLanka, on #COVID19 today. We discussed health and economic impacts #COVID19 can have on his country and the whole region. I thanked him for mobilizing the whole-of-government in the fight against the #coronavirus. Together!,” he tweeted. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, in response, thanked the Director General for his support to Sri Lanka and the immense work being done by the World Health Organization to contain the global pandemic. He added that the Sri Lankan Government will continue to collaborate with the WHO to bring the COVID-19 pandemic under control. In a globally televised news conference held a little later, the WHO Chief said the world must come together to fight the rapidly escalating pandemic.

As the WHO Chief has alluded, Sri Lanka was one of the first countries to take pro-active steps against the coronavirus, well before it was declared a pandemic by the WHO. Sri Lanka has used its powerful quarantine laws and the well-established free healthcare system to take all measures to prevent the spread of the pandemic. The authorities reported over 159 confirmed cases in the country by last evening, with five deaths, which compares very favourably with the overall case and death tallies of the above-mentioned countries. Global infections have now exceeded the one million mark and over 50,000 deaths.

In a further sign of international recognition of Sri Lanka’s handling of this unprecedented crisis, the World Bank too has pledged US$ 128.6 million (approx. Rs.25,000 million) to Sri Lanka. The new fast track package will benefit the entire Sri Lankan population and prioritize stopping or slowing the spread of the virus, reducing case numbers, and preventing outbreaks in communities. This support will scale up emergency response mechanisms, strengthen the capacity of laboratories and hospitals, treat patients, train medical staff, and raise public awareness about hand washing, hygiene, and social distancing.

As this kind of international cooperation exemplifies, this is a battle that the entire world has to fight together. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa made this point clear in the teleconference with SAARC leaders, where he pledged US$ 5 million towards mitigation efforts. He has rightly urged multinational lending agencies and OECD nations to ease the loan conditions at this point of time. This should also extend to the ultimate results of any vaccine trials – a successful vaccine should be made available to the whole world at minimal cost by whatever country or company that manufactures it. Our scientists and researchers too should be involved in the race to find drugs and vaccines for the dreaded disease.

In line with the President’s vision, the Central Bank has also urged donors abroad to contribute in foreign exchange to Sri Lanka’s COVID-19 mitigation efforts. Moreover, the COVID-19 healthcare fund set up on a concept of the President has seen donations pour in from State and private entities as well as from civic-minded individual citizens. This will be of great value in handling this crisis.

We must all remember that we are at war at this juncture – it is not a conventional war, but a battle against an unseen enemy that can cause grief on a massive scale. It is thus our duty to fully support the State, the healthcare system and the Security Forces as they take all possible measures to protect the citizens from this virulent contagion that has no known cure.

It is therefore absolutely essential to respect the curfew imposed by the Government. This has been imposed to prevent community level transmission of the disease through the implementation of social distancing. The idea is that when everyone is at home, the virus cannot find a host to penetrate. This is the only way to “flatten the curve” as scientists describe the ebbing away of a viral disease. Unfortunately, more than 10,000 people have wantonly violated the curfew, putting themselves and others at risk. If we need any further proof of where we will head if these measures are not adhered to, just look at USA, Italy and Spain.

Yes, being confined is difficult and inconvenient and a lot of livelihoods are on the line too. But we all have to make a sacrifice at this point to ensure a brighter future for all. If we do not take this seriously, even the 30-year- war and the Boxing Day Tsunami will pale into insignificance in terms of the possible fatalities. We must all support the Government, the health system and the Security Forces by staying in until the Government declares that it is again safe to resume normal activity.

Sunday Island Editorial

New Year Blues

It is now a commonly known fact that the Chinese New Year holidays, during which possibly tens of millions or more Chinese people travel to their homes, accelerated the spread of the coronavirus in that country and the wider world. Although Sri Lanka's population does not run into the billions as in China and India, we all know that tens of thousands of our own countrymen and women go their home villages to celebrate the Sinhala and Hindu New Year which is fast approaching. The holiday which falls on April 12 and 13 is almost upon us and what the government is going to do in the context of this situation has not yet been publicized. However unpopular, safety first must prevail.

Obviously the curfew which has covered the whole Island time and again since the first Chinese woman tourist was discovered some weeks ago with the disease, quarantined and treated, will not allow people to make the annual trek to their villages at this time. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the only elected official in office today has been compelled to take many hard decisions in the face of a challenge that has not confronted mankind during living memory or, as a matter of fact, during the recorded history of many centuries. Over-reaction to the current situation is immeasurable superior to under-reaction which will extract a terrible price. That is a mistake we cannot afford to make.

Wisdom ex- post facto tells us that some wrong decisions may have been taken – for example the lifting of the curfew in the early days of its imposition which led to large crowds flocking to supermarkets, grocery stores and many more that resulted in exactly what we are being constantly exhorted not to do, happening. But people need essential food and drink, the sick need their medicines, and when a window enabling such purchases to be made is opened, crowding such outlets is inevitable. There will probably be no foolproof method of avoiding such situations. Perhaps China with an entirely different system to ours did so at least to some extent. We have to learn not only by our own experience but also by the experiences of other countries.

With the hope that springs eternal in the human breast, nearly all us believe that there will be a world after coronavirus. But it will be certainly a world totally different to what we have known. Yuval Noah Harari, historian, phlosopher and best selling author of Sapiens and Homo Deus has in a recently published think piece made the point that “This storm will pass. But the choices we make now could change our lives for years to come.” He says that quick and decisive action is essential taking into account the long-term consequences of our actions. When choosing between alternatives we should ask ourselves not only how to overcome the immediate threat, but what kind of world we will inhabit once the storm passes.

Unlike his forefathers mankind today is blessed with new technology that makes laborious tasks of the past possible within the blink of an eyelid. This has massively helped suveillance and identification of carriers in China. Harari says many short term emergency measures will become a fixture of life in the future for that is the nature of emergencies. They fast forward historical processes. We in Sri Lanka have seen some of our people trying to duck quarantine in spite of disease symptoms. Other congregations of large numbers of people have been held despite their dangers and prior warnings; these have no doubt hastened the spread of the disease. The first priority has been to deal with the consequences of such irresponsibility – tracing people who had come in contact with possible carriers and placing them under quarantine while treating those who have been infected. This has already been done but total cover is well nigh impossible. The guilty would have been summarily dealt with in a totalitarian situation. But our society is different and there are more urgent priorities than imposing punishment.

The government is well aware of the plight of the hundreds of thousands of daily wage earners in the country who live by day to day. Some measures have been taken to alleviate their plight like making special payments to Samurdhi beneficiaries. But due to the unfortunate politicization of even poor relief welfare schemes by successive governments, it is widely accepted that Samurdhi has not been properly targeted with many unqualified for the benefit receiving it while large numbers of those in acute distress are left out in the cold.

Well done CBK

Readers of yesterday's online edition of The Island would have been pleased with an article published under the byline of Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga. In her well researched contribution, the former president offered information on the origin of the coronavirus carried by bats and other fauna probably from 'wet markets' in China selling the flesh of wild animals for human consumption. The result has been the pandemic now threatening the world. Undoubtedly much of this information is available on the Internet but we are happy that a former leader of the country now in retirement has taken the trouble to browse the net and put together a great deal of information that most people would not have had access to. Remember the mad cow disease of the not so distant past?

The Sri Lanka taxpayer spends a lot in supporting former presidents and their spouses in retirement. Even some of the wealthier developed countries do not spend as much in per capita terms. In this context we can be happy that CBK is taking an interest in doing her mite in the current emergency. Her conclusion is inescapable: the process of man attacking nature as he has done over a very long period can only result in catastrophe.

Sunday Times Editorial

The economy and Covid-19

Already crippled as it was with a balance of payments crisis and the repayment of debt on both local and foreign loan obligations triggering a slide in the rupee vis-a-vis international currencies, COVID-19 comes to deal the killer punch to the country’s fragile economy.

The otherwise sluggish economy was further retarded by last year’s drop in tourism earnings by 18 per cent — from USD 4.3 billion to USD 3.5 billion after the Easter Sunday bombings. On top of that there was a drop in remittances from Sri Lankan workers overseas by USD 300 million now standing at USD 5 billion to what was once, not too long ago, USD 7 billion.

COVID-19 has attacked each and every major sector of the economy bringing in foreign exchange: tea and garment exports earnings; lower remittances from the three countries where Sri Lankan workers are employed (with South Korea and Italy badly affected and anticipated low global oil prices retarding West Asian economies for some time) and the dislocation of the tourism industry.

How the country can ‘roll with the punches’ is what is at stake. It clearly is not going to be easy.

What we are seeing is a sweeping and radical move to stem the tide with the beginning of import restrictions and hints about import substitutions the likes of which might lead to what has not been witnessed since the liberalisation of the economy in 1977 — and a return to the bad old days of not that long ago.

The Central Bank has been arm-twisted to announce the unpopular moves. A misquote by the Cabinet spokesman this week that the first wave of a “temporary suspension” of all luxury items from motor cars to deodorants was to be followed by an import clamp down on everything under the sun other than pharmaceuticals and oil sent shivers down everyone. The Government later cleared the air about the blanket ban on imports but has so far ducked giving reasons why the first restriction came about. The reasons are clear as clear can be. The Government is broke.

Early signs emerged when the Prime Minister asked the Government of India for a moratorium on loans taken from that country. A request to the Government of China was expected to follow when the President went to Beijing. The outbreak of COVID-19 put paid to the visit but China gave a loan of USD 500 million that was to be announced during the visit anyway, only adding to the debt burden but helping the country tide over difficult times. COVID-19 has come as a deft distraction to sneak the draconian import restrictions and other measures that will inevitably see a return to the pre-1977 era in Sri Lanka.

The GMOA (Government Medical Officers Association) is clearly is in the driving seat of the Government’s drive to contain COVID-19. If it is advocating a complete crackdown on all activities as it has pointed out in a 10-point statement, it has seemingly misinterpreted an international think-tank’s ‘Hammer and Dance’ theory. That theory calls for tough even two-month-long ‘social distancing’ measures (Hammer) and then gradually withdraw those measures (Dance) when issues subside. Their argument is to “buy time” till the spread of the virus is contained and vaccines are found. Being in the frontline of this crisis, the GMOA members and those in the hospitals face the brunt of this unseen enemy and their insistence on a countrywide curfew is understandable, but only to a point.

Can the Government afford to ignore the economy in the process? Will the tough imposition of a curfew lead to an ‘operation successful, patient dead’ situation if the economy totally collapses. This is a dilemma for the Government.

Already a permit system is in place giving the Police the authority to issue a limited number of curfew passes for workers in the plantations and industry. Then they raid those workplaces to see if the numbers have been exceeded. Pharmacies that are already licensed have to get a permit to stay open.

In all countries hit by COVID-19, and successful in ‘flattening the curve’ of the spread of the virus, pharmacies and grocery stores were kept open and citizens allowed to go out only for that purpose of making purchases. In Singapore, Japan and South Korea the situation is controlled arrested by efficient testing, tracing, isolating and quarantine plus a ban on internal travel. Maybe Sri Lanka is not epidemiologically up to this task yet and hence the tough curfew.

If the Police are trying to justify the curfew trotting out statistics of curfew violators, they also need to say how many are on joyrides as opposed to how many are actually in search of food or medicine – or up to crime, a frightening spectre in times of shortages.

Broke the Government maybe, but it cannot absolve itself of having to protect the poor and an estimated two million people who may lose their jobs unless it intervenes. It has already announced a financial stimulus for the Samurdhi (poverty alleviation) recipients. The mechanism identifying and distributing to an additional 1.5 million families as stated in a recent circular is an enormous task during a curfew.

Because of weak aggregate demand, the Government may be able to mop up large savings from the financial institutions and borrow the balance from the Central Bank to distribute the money in the hands of those who need it most. Inflationary effects of printing money are expected to be moderate in an environment of poor aggregate demand and adequate supply.

Putting the country on a ‘war footing’ is not the same as a top heavy state control of the economy. That would only ignore long and complex supply chains for distributing commodities. It will not work. Even in the ongoing food distribution, the State sector marketing from the farm to consumer caters only to a segment of the population. Panic through anxiety will see another rush to stock home larders defeating the social distancing requirement.

While officially it is estimated that growth will drop by 1 percent due to COVID-19, many fear that for the first time since 2001, Sri Lanka will see zero or a negative growth rate in 2020.

This is a natural disaster which is a national disaster. The 1978 cyclone, the 2004 tsunami, the droughts, floods and landslides, even the ‘war’ will pale into insignificance. The safe reopening of the economy as fast as possible is a prerequisite to economic recovery.