Ceylon Today Editorial

BLUSTER AND BLUNDER?

22 January 2017

Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States of America, sent negative vibrations coursing over the entire world, but especially across Europe where NATO heads, Asia, and Pacific region leaders would have grimaced at his inauguration statement on foreign (military/security) policy with his criticism of Obama "subsidizing the armies of foreign countries while allowing the depletion of our own military".

It's this very subsidizing by Obama that helped push back terrorism the world over, wipe out Islamic State forces across Mosul, Raqqa and Sirte, and help rebels in Syria hold out to the bitter end against Putin and Assad's killing sprees. Trump stands alone as a man who has not grasped this fact.

World leaders battling terrorism and State terrorism of the type extolled and pushed through by Putin would have recoiled with serious misgivings by the new US President's statement.

It seems to have missed Trump entirely that subsidizing by Obama helped train foreign militaries and gave them the ability, technology, training and weaponry with which they have been successfully pushing back terrorism and ISIL.

Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia and Japan will no doubt have received the statement with grave fear, being unable to sustain any more appropriation from their budgets for higher defence spending. Ditto with India and Bay of Bengal nations and the countries dotted around the South China Seas. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said in Davos last Friday that he does not see an immediate danger of a military stand-off between India and China in the Indian Ocean or a trade war between the US and China in the same region extending to the huge expanses of the entire Asian-Pacific area. India could be very worried should Trump revisit defence agreements entered into just last year between Obama and Modi...a prospect that can enormously encourage a shift of Chinese military policy against India in the region.

With China backing Pakistan to the hilt and encircling India across the Himalayas into southern Pakistan, Trump's declared policy can impose massive pressures on Modi to hurriedly remodel India's defence stances. What affects India will have a direct bearing on Sri Lanka and the danger of China taking advantage of Trump's stance will be a worrying possibility as far as Modi and President Sirisena are concerned. Certainly, Trump's security policy will hugely encourage both Putin and Jinping to reassess their own extra-regional military stances and thus present bigger threats to global security. Trump's decision will leave Sri Lanka in a compromised position because the government has been responding positively to all overtures made by the Obama administration and has committed the nation to a military partnership status with the US, which is presumed by all and sundry in defence affairs to mean that Sri Lanka stands with the US against any anti-American force in the Asia, Indian Ocean-Pacific region and has under that agreement given open access to the US forces to Sri Lanka's ports and airfields.

Will Sri Lanka and India rethink military foreign policy now? This is especially frighteningly so for NATO members in the face of a buoyant Putin and Assad who can now play a major role in Putin's bid to recover the glory days of pre-Glasnost/Perestroika when the Russian Federation as head of the USSR ruled the skies and waves.

Trump's statement on security policy will most of all strike fear into the Balkan States of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and closer to Moscow, Ukraine, where the panic spread fast and war became a buzzword overnight along the frontier countries between Russia and the Baltic States.

These are all members of the NATO and the European Union. Hearing that Trump might wind down aid and other forms of military assistance in the face of the huge threat from Putin, especially after the annexation of Crimea, warmer ties between Trump and Putin and the Syrian catastrophe, the leaders of these small countries will be experiencing serious fears for their security. They certainly can't take on Putin on their own, perhaps even collectively, especially from just across the border and from Syria on the other side. Aleppo and Ukraine incursions by Putin are ample evidence of his willingness to use brute force to drive weak nations into subjugation.

This is the backdrop against which Trump announces his ambiguous security strategy.
When he said that NATO States must pay more for defence, his ambivalence about Crimea, and allusions to how America may not defend members against Russian military action have unnerved not just NATO nations but the whole world. This was compounded when Russia recently moved short-range, nuclear-capable Iskander missiles into its militarized Baltic exclave, Kaliningrad, wedged between Lithuania, Poland, and the Baltic Sea. Obama promptly sent 3,000 troops to Poland. Will Trump recall them?

As an inauguration speech, a US President could have done much better.

Weekend Nation Editorial

Proposed trade pacts: A world of opportunity

22 January 2017

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos has disclosed the government’s plans for playing a significant role in integrating trade in the Asian region by getting into a number of trade agreements.

He has said that negotiations are already under way to sign such special trade agreements with India, China and the European Union while there are plans to start negotiations with Japan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam and the ASEAN. Special trade agreements are also due to be signed with some selected states in South India such as Tamil Nadu, Andra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Kerala.

With the idea of converting Sri Lanka into a major economic centre in the Indian Ocean, plans are also afoot to develop two economic regions adjacent to Colombo Port and Hambantota Port/Airport while Trincomalee Port and the adjacent area will be developed with assistance from India and Singapore.

The whole thing appears to be a grand plan which could change the future of the country if everything goes well. In Sri Lanka’s case trade integration can be a key to success particularly because of its strategic location.

It is also significant that this announcement was made to coincide with the World Economic Forum at a time China is playing a key role there, mostly because Chinese investments in infrastructure development in Sri Lanka can be a catalyst in the whole exercise.
In this context it is also relevant to note that Sri Lanka has been a trading nation throughout its documented history and the country had occupied an important position in the trade circuit by the 2nd Century. From the 4th to the 7th Century AD, Sri Lanka had been the main trade emporium for East-West trade.

From the 6th Century to the 12th Century, Sri Lanka together with India and Srivijaya Empire acted as intermediaries for South East Asian trade. Exports from South East Asia were transported on Sri Lankan ships.Trade was therefore one of the earliest economic activities of the island. It was also the main source of wealth between 900 to 400 BC.

The attempts to spearhead regional trade through Sri Lanka may appear to some as a dream as the whole exercise is still at a very embryonic stage. However, the idea is worth pursuing vigorously and being on an important sea route that seems to be the only way for our country to exploit its locational advantage to the maximum.

Sunday Times Editorial

Dealing with Trump, pick the right cards

22 January 2017

Whether one likes it or not, the advent of a new President of the United States of America always has global significance. That is why one of the many ironies of the world is that only the people of America get to vote for the holder of that office, despite that nation wanting to be the ‘policeman of the world’.

Friday’s induction of the 45th President of the USA now known as the Disunited States of America, is a plunge into the unknown. It seemed the unfortunate Americans had the dilemma of closing their nose and voting for Hilary Clinton or closing their eyes and voting for Donald Trump.
Eventually, even though by a minority count of the popular vote, the unknown devil triumphed over the known, with the hope that it will be a leap for the better. Unpredictability is a Trump signature, say political observers who ask the world to get ready for a wild ride.

President Trump has arraigned China and aligned with Russia. He probably knows he must team up with one against the other for the day China and Russia get together, it would be curtains for the US Empire. He believes he is morally superior and understands the world better because he’s made it very rich. His inaugural address was a pointer to a recognition that he rode to the White House on the backs of the working class and that he believes he’s the Chosen One to make ‘America Great Again’, his campaign slogan. Others feel, and hope, the ‘weight of office’ will temper him.

While the world is aghast at President Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, and Europe is already saying their ‘values’ are at stake, for Sri Lanka, the advent of a Trump Presidency is likely to be a ‘bitter-sweet’ experience. The Partnership Dialogue with the US is expected to continue, though the next meeting to be hosted by Colombo is likely to slip in terms of timing. TIFA – a process and a consultative forum on trade and Foreign Direct Investment will also probably continue.

And yet, the Trump Presidency seems adamant on reverting to the Protectionism route at a time when Sri Lanka and the world are looking for open trade, the hallmark of US-led free trade policies of the past. In Davos, Switzerland, the supra-rich CEOs who set the benchmarks for globalisation have been taken aback by Trumpism and the full circle the world is witnessing with the once trademark isolationist Communist China, now the leading advocate of globalisation and free trade.

Sri Lanka’s hopes, therefore, of a trade partnership with the US are on shaky turf with plans for market access to the US, one of our key trading countries in the balance. With the Trump Presidency so critical of TPPs (Trans Pacific Partnership), the pathway to a second round of countries like Sri Lanka is off the table. Thus, Sri Lanka will have to rely on an FTA (Free Trade Agreement) which again, is not going to be any free ride for Sri Lanka.

Developments in security co-operation could increase. There were recent joint exercises and the establishment of a Sri Lankan Marine Corps with US help, more ship visits and P-8 Orion submarine hunter aircraft visit to Mattala would seem a US strategic interest in Sri Lanka even though the 400 acre VOA radio station at Iranawila has closed down citing the fact that shortwave radio is no longer the preferred choice for news dissemination.

For those in Sri Lanka who hope that a Trump Administration will look more kindly at Sri Lanka vis-a-vis the resolution its predecessor forced down the throat of the UN Human Rights Council to initiate a virtual War Crimes Tribunal, they will need to wait in suspended animation to see if there could be a reversal of the process. It is unlikely that there will be a complete U-turn by the US, but one might expect the March meeting of the UNHRC to note progress – and gaps, in Sri Lanka’s Human Rights record with a roll over resolution to 2018. Human Rights issues are too embedded in the UNHRC system. Then, there is the incoming US ambassador to the UN has already questioned the validity of the UN, but all this will be in the realm of uncertainty as everything else as the new Administration finds its feet in Washington.

What is certain however, is that President Trump (like his predecessor, President Barack Obama) is not going to have a hands-on interest in what goes on in this neck of the woods other than in the geo-political (Indian Ocean) sense when China’s increasing influence infringes upon US interests.
All these are ponderables that require a more dynamic and studied foreign policy initiative from Colombo than the nepotism and sheer incompetence of the Mahinda Rajapaksa Government and the ad-hocism that was shown by this Government in throwing good money after bad by hiring B-Grade lobby firms to do the Government’s work in Washington.

As President Obama left the Oval Office of the White House, he must have learnt at least one lesson, and that is that he was not necessarily holding the most powerful job in the world as many seem to think it is.

He swept to office with a broad smile, a cherubic demeanour and great ideals creating history becoming the first African-American to hold that post, even though he was only half African. He has now left that job after eight years with a record high approval rating from his people having accomplished many things. His legacy will be providing free healthcare to 20 million American poor, restoring relations with long-standing enemy states Iran and Cuba and refusing to accept the theory that military intervention was the only solution to global conflicts.

Hamstrung by a hostile Congress, he still couldn’t bring gun control to America and race riots were a regular feature under his watch. He couldn’t even get a Supreme Court judge appointed. Abroad, he started arming rebel groups in Syria to oust its incumbent President (while complaining that Russia interfered in US elections) resulting in a massive refugee issue. And yet, there is no dispute that he was a good man, his heart in the right place and gave the US a human face it had lacked around the world.

The USA is not the centre of the Earth, but it is very much a power to reckon with. It may change its horses, but the caravan will move on. And it is up to countries like Sri Lanka to know how its own stars must be hitched to that moving wagon.

Sunday Observer Editorial

Sri Lanka and Donald Trump

22 January 2017

Every four years, like clockwork, our readers’ thoughts turn to an event in the United States of America that could affect our own lives and the well-being of our nation. That is, the US presidential election and the prospects for our country and our neighbourhood, depending on who gets elected (or, re-elected) as the President of that country.

Why are we so concerned about a political process in a country that is located on the far side of the Earth? Because, the US of A is, still, the world’s single most powerful country and the one that leads the powerful political and economic bloc of countries that dominate world affairs and have done so for at least the past 150 years. Sri Lanka suffered considerably under this domination although, in the post-colonial era, this bloc of former colonial countries has made amends through development aid and other support.

The Sunday Observer, today, congratulates Donald John Trump on his ascension to the executive presidency of the United States and wishes him and his country well, during his term. That President Trump won convincingly in the formal Electoral College process and lost convincingly in the popular individual vote count is not immediately relevant to us, except in appreciating the wonderful, complex, precision of the American electoral system and its strict observance by American politicians. We hope that our own politicians take note.

What concerns us, here, on this side of the globe, are trade, economic aid and investment, and political relations with the US. Individual Sri Lankans with eyes on greener pastures and those who need to travel to the US on business or education will also be concerned about future US immigration policy under President Trump.

President Trump’s persistent and consistent election campaign ‘motto’ of “America first” was, significantly, also the main theme of his Inauguration speech on taking the oath of Presidency, on Friday. Already, in numerous campaign speeches and internet ‘Tweets’, the new President has outlined several things that he would or may do in putting American interests ‘first’.

Several policy pronouncements, echoed in President Trump’s Inauguration speech on Friday, hint at possible changes in trade policy, immigration procedures, foreign policy and, foreign investments by the US capital.

His constant refrain of protecting American jobs by stricter regulation of imported goods will, if intensively implemented, affect exports to the lucrative US market by other countries. However, Sri Lanka’s exports to the US mainly comprise goods – such as apparel, tea – that are not likely to see import substitution within the US itself and hence, are not as threatened. New US trade restrictions could close the US market to us if we plan to develop industries that export goods – such as vehicles, electronics, heavy manufactures – affected by that new US trade regime. But Sri Lanka is not immediately going down this particular track of export industry expansion.

It is likely, however, that US immigration laws will be tightened, especially, from countries and regions perceived as detrimental to US security. Given the rhetoric of the new US regime, tighter immigration policy is likely to especially affect predominantly Muslim countries, and also from countries with bad records of illegal migration.

If religion-based selectivity begins to be practised by US Immigration, then individual Muslims, irrespective of their nationality, may find their access to the US more difficult. This may affect not just potential migrants but all those who want to travel to the US on business, tourism and for education, or even transit US cities on their way elsewhere. Fortunately, for Sri Lankans, our rapidly developing world today offers alternative destinations for all these purposes.

The tourism industry will not have worries over new US policy except if the Trump presidency further antagonizes various violent forces in the world to the degree that worsens the risks of Americans travelling abroad or to any particularly volatile region.

The US foreign policy under President Trump is likely to see the beginnings of a tectonic shift from the past, American dealings with the rest of the world and this is clearly signalled by Trump in his Inauguration speech. It is a shift from the previously outward-looking America to an inward-looking one.

This may help those in other countries whose depredations have attracted American political pressures and manipulations. But, people and governments of countries trying to repair the effects of such depredations may find that a more reclusive USA, a one-time champion of good governance and democracy, may not be readily available with support.

In Sri Lanka, as we struggle to meet the burden of enormous debt, crippling nepotism and immense corruption left behind by the Rajapaksa regime, we may find that previously cherished American support for all things democratic and pro-democratic may wane just when we need it.

Again, trade protectionism and new US governmental incentives for domestic investments as against foreign investments may change the global economic environment in ways that reduce US investments overseas, especially in non-priority regions and countries. Sri Lanka is fortunately in a newly emerging world where there are now many centres and networks of global capital to which we can look for investment.

Our own, new, middle-income country status, must be seen as a good foundation for us to strike out more on our own, rather than continue to depend too much on any single bloc of countries for support for our endeavours. If we succeed, President Trump, the global entrepreneur that he was, will be among the first to congratulate us. His clarion call to his people should be echoed in our endeavour to put ‘Sri Lanka first’.

Sunday Island Editorial

Rescuing SriLankan

22 January 2017

 

SriLankan Airlines and its predecessors, Airlanka and Air Ceylon, have throughout their history had various collaboration arrangements with reputed international carriers including KLM Royal Dutch Airlines and Singapore Airlines. More recently, Dubai-based Emirates bought a 40 percent stake in the airline, later increased it to slightly over 43 percent, and assumed management control. Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa who had appointed his brother-in-law, Nishantha Wickremasinghe, a professional planter as the Chairman of the Government-controlled owning company, terminated the arrangement with Emirates which had turned the airline into profit. This followed a dispute with the airline’s management over its refusal to bounce fare-paying business class passengers to make way for members of his entourage returning home from London. Wickremasinghe was given executive control of the airline with dire results for the country with the corruption and debt-ridden airline incurring billions of rupees of losses that devolved on the taxpayer.

We recount this history in the context of SriLankan’s efforts to attract a partner to invest in and run the airline which was discussed in the news media last week. The recent complaint to the bribery authorities by former Minister Mahindananda Aluthgamage against Public Enterprise Minister Kabir Hashim, alleging a payoff in arrangements for the cancellation of some pending aircraft orders does not warrant examination. But allegations, however disreputable their sources of origin, must be properly investigated. Aluthgamage’s track record is not pretty. The former president, to his credit, has maintained an eloquent silence (perhaps implying admission) on the rank bad appointment of Nishantha Wickremasinghe to head SriLankan and continuing him when there was more than ample reason to get rid of him. Wickremasinghe is currently under investigation and what will come of it only time will tell. Meanwhile a lot of hard work needs to be done to revive the national carrier which, despite its checkered history has time and again served the nation well.

The invitation for offers to run SriLankan had attracted nine bids. Three of these have been short listed. A bid by Gamini Wettasinghe, running an outfit called PeaceAir is one of these. Wettasinghe called a news conference in Colombo last week where he alleged that there were efforts to hide his bid and also has spoken of rigging. The numbers presented at the briefing were undoubtedly attractive but there was no clear indication where the funds were coming from. The short listed offers were from TPG (Texas Pacific Group), a US investment firm with experience in turning around distressed companies including an airline and a Maldives-based consortium. While there was some initial interest from some Middle Eastern carriers, this has apparently tailed off. Hashim indicated at his press conference that Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe will take a decision on the short listed offers within the next fortnight and if none of these prove satisfactory, a three-member cabinet committee which Hashim would chair with Ministers Sarath Amunugama and Malik Samarawickrema as members would resume the search for a suitable partner. It is obvious that the national carrier has to be made viable under the kind of arrangement that is being sought. The government hasn’t the needed funds to infuse into the airline to revive it and a partnership arrangement is imperative.

Getting an established international airline to help make SriLankan viable would be a preferred option. When the J.R. Jayewardene government set up Airlanka to succeed Air Ceylon, he was able to enlist the intervention of Prime Minister Lee Kwan Yew of Singapore to ensure the assistance of Singapore Airlines (SIA) to help the new venture. SIA had acquired a global reputation for excellence and a better partner to help get our new airline going would have been hard to find. In a world where there are no free lunches, obviously SIA would have been looking for some benefits for itself too from the arrangement. Our landing rights to many destinations worldwide was solid capital the national airline could offer its partners. For whatever reason, the partnership with SIA did not last as long as desirable. But Airlanka did become a modern airline acquiring skills and technology this country lacked with immense benefits both for the country and its people. One example was the fact that we had an airline of our own to fly passengers here when many international carriers stopped calling at Katunayake post July1983 when the country’s image was blackened worldwide by communal rioting. Also, Lankans were able to get foreign airline jobs with skills and experience gathered at Airlanka.

The shoddy manner and the reason for which our arrangement with Emirates was terminated would obviously make most international airlines think more than twice about striking a partnership with SriLankan. It can of course be argued that if there is money to be made and advantages to be had, commercial enterprises will look at deals however bad somebody’s (or a country’s) track record might be. Let us hope that a suitable arrangement where the majority stake of the airline will remain at home can be made with a reputable party with the financial and management muscle to make a go of the business. Apart from landing rights, Sri Lanka’s geographical location is an advantage in this regard. The quicker a deal is struck, the better because the continuing hemorrhage is totally unaffordable.