Ceylon Today Editorial

INDO-PACIFIC ENTER THE BEAR

26 March 2017

When Premier Narendra Modi went to Moscow for talks with Russian President V. Putin, in December 2015, the latter presented Modi with an 18th century sword from Bengal that belonged to the Najafi Dynasty, and according to some, not something that evokes fond memories in the minds of Hindus of India. Shortly after they signed agreements to boost Indo-Russian cooperation in the all important and globally significant defence and nuclear energy fields, besides agreements facilitating Indian companies' participation in Russia's oil and gas sector as well as opening up the energy sector in India to Russian participation. The meeting between the two leaders was dubbed as the 16th India-Russia Summit at the Kremlin.

It began with a restricted meeting between the two leaders.

It was after their exclusive tete-a-tete that they were joined by their respective delegations.

To date, no one knows what Modi and Putin talked about that was so vitally important that their delegations should not know anything about the nature of those talks. This visit came about a few months after Modi visited China where talks did not go beyond matters of economic cooperation including investments in India. Modi added that he hoped his visit would strengthen stability, progress and prosperity in Asia. Since then however, we have not seen any thawing on the political front where India and China are concerned, with China driving hard bargains with President Sirisena and Premier Wickremesinghe for big stakes in Colombo and Hambantota, that can openly mean a futuristic militarist strategy in the pipeline that has unsettling concerns for India and other nations.

Sirisena with no excuses did not respond to an invite from Chinese President Xi Jinping last year in the aftermath of soured relations arising from the new Lankan government's tilt towards India and the US in matters related to the Colombo and Hambantota harbours and airports, and stronger defence related agreements with them.

The entry of the Russian factor, especially after a huge lapse of half a century, is no mere coincidence and hence can be seen not as an isolated issue in Lankan foreign relations but in the light of Russia being a close ally of China. Sirisena's Moscow visit can, therefore, be seen only as a first step towards more approaches from Putin to ultimately alter the status quo in the US-India-Lanka nexus. It will be in Putin's and Xi Jinping's interests to ensure that the US presence in Manila is eliminated and that a US and Indian presence in the North, Colombo and South (Hambantota) is not allowed to take firm root.

This is the underlying significance in a Russian leader suddenly wanting to meet the leader of a little South Asian nation...something that no predecessor of his has been interested in, whether from the then USSR or the current Russian Federation, for nigh on 50 long years. So then, why the sudden interest just when the US has begin sending down roots in Sri Lanka and the UK, France, US, Australia, Japan and New Zealand seem likely to follow suit?

Despite India having major issues pertaining to security with China, Modi on his Moscow visit went so far as to say that "History is witness to the close ties India and Russia have had over the decades. Russia remains one of India's most valued friends in the world. My visit will deepen the cooperation between India and Russia in the economic, energy and security spheres. We also want to increase cooperation in science and technology, mining among other sectors. Trade ties between India and Russia can increase even further, to benefit not only our two nations but also the world." He said all this despite having forged unprecedentedly closer military/security ties with the US and thus sent a message to Putin that India would see him as a factor out of the frame in which China dominates as a potential threat. By Sirisena also going to Moscow despite having entered into deeper defence and other cooperation agreements with the US, he was in fact blunting any tendency Putin might entertain in taking China's side against any future rift with Sri Lanka on issues relating to military use of Hambantota or Colombo.

This dual approach to China and Moscow are obviously ways in which Modi and Sirisena have opted to effect a course change in policy in the light of the fact that US President Trump has obviously decided on a softer stance vis-à-vis any potential confrontational approach to Russia.

We could be hence seeing the beginnings of a quantum shift in South Asian policy stances towards Putin aimed at perhaps persuading him to drop his plans of aggression in the Baltic States and Europe and a non-interference policy in the south China seas, Indian Ocean and Pacific regional states apart from NATO.

The Nation Editorial

Parades of shame

26 March 2017

Even though the big match season is in its latter stages, the hype and celebration is yet to die down. While the season has witnessed some memorable encounters in the pitch, the encounters outside the cricket grounds have evoked negative vibes.

Since of late, we have been coming across several incidents of student aggressiveness. A few weeks ago, a fracas between students of two leading schools in Colombo resulted in injuries and damage to properties.

Yet another disturbing incident involving two schools was reported last week where present and past students of Mahanama College, Colombo had forcibly entered into Yasodhara Girls’ School in Borella.

The incident resulted in a tense situation within and outside the school premises following which the boys were handed over to the police.

Soon afterwards, police announced that all girl schools in Colombo would be provided with police protection.

The incident had taken place when students of Mahanama College were on a parade held to mark their big match encounter with D.S. Senanayake College Colombo.

Reports said that the Principal of Mahanama was not informed of the parade. This is a very unhealthy situation where the head of the school is unaware of what is going on.

The perpetrators also included some old boys, who have already walked out of the school gates to deal with the outside world. The old boys have the responsibility of being good role models to their juniors. They are expected to be mature, responsible and provide guidance to the young ones who waver.

Big match parades are not unusual during the season. The parades organized by the schools are held in the run up of the respective big matches.

Over the many years during which these parades were conducted, there have been many occasions where boys would enter into girl schools for ‘hat collection’.

Some of the girl schools, especially the sister schools of the boy schools, are aware of the parades and would allow them into their premises so that there are no tense situations.

However, there have also been occasions in the past where students had jumped into girl schools without permission and created tension. These students were aptly dealt with by the respective schools.

But why do these things happen? Is it part of the gang mentality? As individuals, all students are harmless and well behaved. Inside the school premises one would see one version of the student. But there are other versions to the same individual student once he or she steps out of the gate and mixes with outsiders.

How one behaves outside the school also has an impact on his or her alma mater.

The situation is different in mixed schools. Girls and boys are comfortable with each other. There is a sense of camaraderie. Boys would even protect their female classmates when they sense tension.

But, it is not the case with other schools were it is either an all girls, or boys schools.

Yes Sri Lanka is indeed opening up where girls and boys are becoming comfortable with each other. But, it still does not give the right for boys to forcefully enter a girls school.

The parents too have to play a crucial role in the upbringing of their children.

Unlike the past, it has become a must for both parents to earn in order to run the family. Therefore, it could be that many children do not get more time to spend with their parents. This could also be a reason for children being aggressive.

It is therefore important for teachers to take up the responsibility of teaching good values to the students.

This big match season will be over soon. What about the next one? Do the police have to provide security to girls schools everytime there is a parade?

Sunday Times Editorial

Sri Lanka in superpower geopolitical gymnastics

26 March 2017

Marshal Josip Broz Tito of the former Yugoslavia is credited with the famous quote of yesteryear that Non-Alignment meant “signalling left and turning right”. Or maybe it was the other way around, but the drift was clear.

Today, the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), launched in the 1950s and which went on from strength to strength till the mid-1970s in the midst of the Cold War period is no longer relevant. Sri Lanka, one of the pioneers of this movement is now in the forefront of giving the Movement the boot as being “irrelevant” in the modern day, but Movement’s principles may still be relevant.

NAM was essentially an anti-West movement of nations that were emerging from colonial, mainly Western, rule. It was led by countries like Cuba and Iran at times, and today its chairman is Venezuela, a virulently anti-American state.

The super-power equation has also changed in recent years. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US became the sole ‘policeman’ of the world, but not for long. Russia (which, inter-alia, kept the nuclear arsenal and military hardware when the Soviet Union was dismantled – and has enormous natural gas and oil resources) has bounced back into contention and superpower status, discarding its Communist policies along the way.

President Maithripala Sirisena visited Moscow this week rekindling diplomatic relations established 60 years ago with a country that is largely ignored when the UNP sits in office.

The new player in the super-power game is China, which is already flexing its military muscle in its immediate neighbourhood, especially in the sea lanes of the South China Sea with a long-term view to extending its influence to the Indian Ocean and beyond to the African seas. Hambantota is, therefore, of key strategic interest to China and its People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN). Those in Sri Lanka negotiating a controversial partnership with China to manage the new harbour in the city have come up against some ‘hard ball’ tactics from the Beijing end and seem weak-kneed in response.

China seems to have worked with an iron fist in a velvet glove, so to speak, showing disinterest in economic investment in Sri Lanka unless it gets its pound of flesh. Having compromised the Sri Lankan Government in the first place by building a port in double-quick time, China is now tying Sri Lanka to a debt crisis it partly created; a debt Sri Lanka hasn’t the money to repay thanks to the folly of the previous Administration.

There still remains some confusion about the proposed Agreement with the Cabinet announcing go-ahead plans and President Sirisena suggesting a sub- committee go into its merits. At least there is one commendable clause that no activities of a “military nature” whether on land, sea or air, in and around the port-city will be permitted other than with the permission of the Government of Sri Lanka.

The fact that the US Pacific Command did some joint military manoeuvres in Hambantota with the nascent Sri Lankan Coast Guard cannot be a mere coincidence. That they were concluded on the eve of the visit of the Chinese Defence Minister to Colombo last week seems a VHF (Very High Frequency) signal to the Chinese not to jump to the conclusion that Hambantota is their turf already.

How much the VHF signals are picked up by Colombo’s political and defence establishments only they will know. The US Defence Department was never in sync with its State Department over the northern separatist insurgency in Sri Lanka. Once, the US DefenceAttache in Colombo defended the Sri Lankan Armed Forces and their conduct in defeating the LTTE at the height of the State Department’s thrust in Geneva to belittle the same Armed Forces and tie the country to a resolution at the UN Human Rights Council calling for a tribunal to probe allegations of war crimes. The straight-talking Defence Attache was sent packing post-haste for his public comments.

As President Sirisena held talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, a string of proposed Agreements were announced with China in the wake of the Chinese Defence Minister’s visit. None of them has been made public so far. The defence relationship with China is long-standing given that country’s unstinted help in quashing the northern separatist rebellion in Sri Lanka. The Chinese state-owned enterprises need to be factored in commercial roles in Sri Lanka’s strategic assets (ports, airports, highways, power generation) and Sri Lanka’s OBOR-Maritime Silk Route –parts of which the US calls “the Maritime Super Highway” – weighs heavily in Beijing’s favour.

In the midst of this, Sri Lanka is on the verge of extending its 2007 Acquisition and Cross Services Agreement (ACSA) with the USA. Signed by the then Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa and US Ambassador Robert Blake, it allows America logistic support, supplies and services in Sri Lanka, especially its ports in case they are needed.

In case of any eventuality, such as a super-power clash in the vicinity, Sri Lanka can opt not to take sides and decline these facilities, preventing US military movements.

However, such a step could be considered a ‘hostile act’. Not helping a friend in need is as bad or as good as, helping the enemy. Furthermore, there are murmurs that there are changes contemplated to the ACSA to permit military operations to be launched from Sri Lankan soil. Fuelling these reports is the fact that, in return, the US has given two years grace for Sri Lanka at the UNHRC. In the circumstances, it may be prudent to consider an amendment to the Exclusion clause of the Agreement to suspend its applicability in times of war, and call for a consultative mechanism followed by a public statement clarifying the position.

While nothing is official, and this Government is playing things close to its chest, the super-power geo-political gymnastics is sucking Sri Lanka into shadowy war games; China using the ‘debt card’ and the US using the ‘UNHRC card’ to exert pressure on Sri Lanka. The Indian Ocean Peace Zone proposal initiated by Sirmavo Bandaranaike is now sunk into the depths of the ocean but not so the UN Law of the Sea Conference also spearheaded by Sri Lankan Ambassador Shirley Amarasinghe — as China, India, the US and even Japan extend their naval capabilities and presence in these warm — now simmering, soon boiling, waters. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe recently referred to ‘non-state actors’ also indulging in “maritime terrorism” in the Indian Ocean disrupting economic growth.

With Sri Lanka’s central location in the Indian Ocean, its national security concerns and foreign policy based on geographic location, geo-political realities and geo-economics to replace the fading Non-Aligned Movement, building and balancing military relationships with India, China, the US and Japan will be crucial if Sri Lanka is to remain ‘a friend of all and an enemy of none’. More so, if the Non-Alignment principles are to remain the golden thread that runs through the fabric of its foreign policy.

Sunday Observer Editorial

Russia: enduring friend

26 March 2017

 

President Maithripala Sirisena’s journey to Moscow last week would have been more than a state visit to an enduring, friendly world power. In Moscow is also his alma mater, the Maxim Gorky Literature Institute, where he studied political science after his diploma in agriculture at Peradeniya. A budding communist activist in his youth, the President would have found little difficulty (even if he has forgotten his Russian) in empathising with the vicissitudes of post-communist Russia.

But the President’s personal experience notwithstanding, the enduring friendship between Moscow and Colombo over decades provides a solid foundation for further strengthening of ties. This bilateral friendship has been unwavering ever since diplomatic relations were established in the first decade after cataclysmic World War 2. As the bigger partner, the one-time Soviet Union, and then Russia, generously extended concessionary aid from the inception of post-colonial Sri Lanka’s national development endeavour.

Beginning with capital assistance to early state industrial ventures here, USSR/Russian aid broadened to an extensive educational support program that, over the decades, benefitted successive generations of Sri Lankans. The aspiring rural intelligentsia, empowered by state-funded free education here but disadvantaged by the lack of English language teaching in rural schools, were quick to take advantage of the wide spectrum of educational scholarships offered by USSR/Russia. People who could not afford paid higher education nor had the ability to compete in English language institutions with their more elite westernised counterparts found a saviour in USSR/Russia for their professional and intellectual ambitions.

Today, along with the British Council, American Centre and Indian Cultural Centre, the Russian Centre remains a centre for international artistic and intellectual currents.

In addition to that early support in industrialisation, Russia has been one of the biggest buyers of Sri Lankan tea for decades. Many a local tea exporter has thrived on that steady market in Russia.

Likewise, an early customer for Sri Lanka’s tourism industry was the Russian holiday-goer who once crowded the then pristine beach fronts in Wellawatta and Mount Lavinia. Today, the Russian tourist market has returned with some vigour. Arrivals from Russia topped 56,000 in 2016 alone, despite the current economic difficulties in that country.

Economics and culture aside, Russia has continued the Soviet tradition of providing Sri Lanka with affordable military hardware. In fact the successor suppliers of some defence assets, namely China and Pakistan, have been able to maintain continuity in Sri Lankan defence supplies because much of their own first generation hardware were derived from Russian technology – whether it is infantry weaponry, ground warfare vehicles or ground attack and interceptor aircraft.

President Sirisena’s own Moscow visit will see more trade development as well as the prospect new naval assets provided affordably by Russia.

In addition to development aid, the Soviet Union and, later, Russia, has supported Sri Lanka in international fora in the face of many challenges. And Sri Lanka too has reciprocated, insisting on viewing ties with Moscow as undefined by other global relationships. Thus, Colombo was able to take a neutral position on the Ukrainian issue in recent times, perceiving the problem in the larger context of dynamics in former Soviet Bloc Eastern Europe.

In world bodies, Russia has helped Sri Lanka withstand pressures from rival major powers using her veto in the UN when necessary to block moves initiated by other geo-political camps that could disadvantage Colombo. During the our internal war, Russia, while respecting Sri Lanka’s sovereign interests as a nation, was careful to avoid taking sides in the ethnic conflict knowing full well the dangers of ethno-nationalism in the formation of modern Russia.

After the foreign policy fiasco of the past Rajapaksa regime, Colombo’s careful re-set of foreign policy enables a far more multi-lateral network of friendly relations across the globe. Russia, being a staunch geo-political friend, remains in the ‘inner circle’ of our closest friendly nations and President Sirisena’s visit has served to underline this relationship.

Who gave the orders?

Even as the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva agreed on a further two-year extension for Sri Lanka’s UN-supported democratic recovery project, there were signs last week that yet more criminal investigations into the repressive actions of the previous regime were showing progress.

The succession of attacks on and murders of journalists during the last regime are among the investigations showing progress. Arrests have been made of suspects in the abduction and assault of journalist Keith Noyahr while the Lasantha Wickrematunga assassination probe is also resulting in the unearthing of new evidence.

While relatively junior officers and staff are now being implicated in these acts of violent political repression, the world and, especially Sri Lankans will watch to see how high the trail of complicity goes up the chain of political command. After all, the evidence being turned up in most of these investigations indicate political interests and not criminal ones as motivating these violent acts.

Then the most important question that must be answered is: who gave the orders?

Sri Lankans will want the answers to this question, even if Geneva does not.

Sunday Island Editorial

Command responsibility

26 March 2017

 

Yesterday’s newspapers reported that three non-commissioned officers (NCOs) of the Sri Lanka Army have been arrested and remanded over the Rathupaswela shooting in August 2013. This followed protestors alleging that a factory in the area manufacturing rubber gloves had polluted ground water in the neighborhood rendering their well water unsafe for drinking. They blocked traffic movement on the Kandy road resulting in the deploying of troops who fired on the demonstrators killing three and injuring 26. It is likely that all those killed and hurt did not suffer gunshot injuries. The shooting provoked panic and a stampede and some of the injuries would have been due to that. After the shooting and the pandemonium that followed, soldiers were also reported to have run around roughing up people on the street.

The aftermath of an event which most believed was an over-reaction on the part of the military saw the factory moved to the Biyagama Export Promotion Zone where it has long been in production. There was no conclusive proof that the business, adding value to locally grown rubber, was responsible for the pollution rendering some wells in the area unsafe. Nevertheless, emotions generated by the shooting made it necessary to relocate the factory which was a unit of a local multinational company that has done very well for itself and the country over a long period of time adding value to home grown rubber. That company’s hand protection segment manufactures not only in Sri Lanka but also in Thailand as well. We do not know whether residents of the affected area are now provided pipe borne water as was promised at the time or whether bowser deliveries that were begun then continue; for that matter it is not known whether moving the factory had resulted in the improvement of well water in the area.

But what is known is that the brigadier commanding the detachment deployed to restore order when demonstrators rendered the Kandy road impassable, was given a diplomatic assignment and sent abroad. Also that it took a change of regime and over three years to move forward with whatever investigations were begun at the time of the shooting. It is very clear that there has been a lot of foot dragging on investigations into incidents where there appeared to be a degree of culpability on the part of the then government and its various agencies. Notable in this respect are the Lasantha Wickrematunga assassination, the murder of the well known rugger player Wasim Thajudeen, the abduction and torture of journalists Keith Noyahr, the attempted murder of editor Upali Tennekoon and the disappearance of cartoonist Prageeth Ekneligoda. After months and years of lackadaisical, half-hearted or no investigation whatever, it is only now that the wheels have begun turning. Some arrests have been made and some suspect placed in remand. But whether enough evidence to convict suspects in a court of law has been gathered remains an open question.

The fact that some progress has been made in investigations, together with some arrests and remanding of suspects is well and good; but it is obvious to all that the real culprits behind these atrocities are not the physical perpetrators. The various hit men belonging to state agencies had nothing personal against their victims. They were clearly assigned to do the dirty and there is up to now no indication that the long arm of the law is closing in on those who issued the hit orders. There have, of course been some high profile names mentioned in media reports and some ball passing, such as exchanges between former Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa and former Army Commander Sarath Fonseka. The name of a top intelligence officer too has, so to speak, been "mentioned in dispatches." At least one senior police officer has been on remand for a period of several months in connection with the Thajudeen case. There was also a bizarre incident of a suspected suicide of an ex-soldier, allegedly leaving a letter owning up to a crime for which some of his mates had been arrested.

Let us hope that those who unleashed the hit men are at least suffering some pangs of conscience about the arrest and remand or persons who had acted on their orders. But whether those who issue such orders have any conscience whatever is a moot point. The hoary old Sinhala idiom that "the king’s dog is more vicious than the king" is replete with wisdom. Most patronage seekers are of that ilk. Unfortunately the long war and the need to overcome an enemy who did not fight according to Queensberry rules resulted in counter measures that were necessary though not the best. This resulted in dehumanizing some of those who had to do what was necessary in the context of the war. It would have been too much to expect that there would be no post-war spillover of such practices both at command and operational levels. Some of the atrocities mentioned in this commentary occurred while the war was being fought. It is not outside the bounds of possibility that some of the perpetrators, brutalized by the war, justified at least in their own minds that means employed justified the end of winning the war.