The UN, Lanka and Terror in Kashmir
21 September 2016While Sri Lanka strongly condemned the early Sunday morning deadly terrorist attack on an Indian military base in which 18 soldiers were killed and 20 others wounded, UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson condemned the attack and said the UK "stands shoulder to shoulder with India in the fight against terrorism and in bringing the perpetrators to justice".
The attack was one of the deadliest since militant attacks began in 1989. It has jerked Indo-Pakistan relations up to fever pitch once again.
India and Pakistan claim all of Muslim-majority Kashmir, but only control parts of it.
The militants had infiltrated across the Line of Control from Pakistan before attacking the base, west of Srinagar, almost straddling the China built US$ 49 billion Trans Continental Highway that passes through Pakistan occupied Kashmir. That area is under Pakistani border guard patrols, close to which a militant attack in Uri in December 2014 killed 9 Indian soldiers. The last attack of this scale on the Indian Army was in June 2015 in Manipur, north-east India, when 20 Indian soldiers were killed. Sunday's attack brings the Indo-Pak crisis to boiling point.
That the Indian Home Ministry called this a 'cross-border terrorist attack' will be interpreted by the Pakistani Government as an accusation of complicity, direct or otherwise brutal and unprovoked killing of Indian soldiers.
The terrorists/separatists are perceived the world over by observers and several governments to be 'home grown' in Pakistan, funded and armed too. When Sri Lanka condemned the attack, our government also brought all of this under that condemnation.
At that time, before the US-India-Japan, Australia-Sri Lanka Indian Ocean security platform came into being to deal with potential armed conflict situation in the region, and before the China-Pakistan Silk Road highway was built, current Premier Narendra Modi lashed out at Pakistan saying: "They did nothing. Indians died and they did nothing". He urged Singh's Government to "talk to Pakistan in Pakistan's language," he said, "because it won't learn lessons until then".
Now in power, will Modi do what he then proposed Singh should have done?
His decision will feature in UNGA sideline talks with President Maithripala Sirisena who can be expected to go further than the Foreign Ministry statement on the attack.
President Sirisena, according to top sources, is going to call for a concerted effort to stamp out terrorism and its after effects in nations such as Sri Lanka and India.
What Modi has in mind is perhaps reflected in the fact that he has immediately picked the more hawkish Ajit Doval as his National Security Adviser immediately after the attack. And Doval called top military and intelligence officials to prepare options for inflicting retaliation on jihadist groups in Pakistan.
The Indian Army could raid terror enclaves inside Pakistan or the Indian Air Force could launch strikes wherever in Pakistan it has intelligence about terror hideouts.
But Pakistan could hit back at Indian industrial infrastructure, which is much more expensive than tent-and-donkey cart training camps. India could, of course, hit back yet again — but this course is fraught with the danger of some indirect US involvement that could turn the escalation into a major conflict, especially because Pakistan a fortnight ago revealed a secret defence pact with China signed in 2014, which we referred to a fortnight ago. Modi has that to contend with but a new Indo-US Security protocol signed in Washington a fortnight ago could prove to come in handy for Modi if he decides on aggressive action.
In 1953, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru mobilized troops in Punjab to deter a Pakistani incursion into Kashmir. But the geopolitics in the region has changed since those days and India under Modi has more powerful options which the US, UK and others at the UN, INCLUDING SRI LANKA, will fully support.
The UN last Saturday reiterated its call for international actors in a war crimes accountability mechanism. The US and UK fully support this initiative.
That compromises both the US and UK who will then have to be asked to call on Pakistan to account for such aggressive war crimes committed by terrorists who shelter under the providence of the Pakistani Government. While the Kashmir remains a contested issue, the same does not apply to the North and East of Sri Lanka where terrorists were encouraged and nurtured successively by the TULF and the TNA, to persist with terrorism to bifurcate Sri Lanka.
President Sirisena therefore can't duck out of the issue at the UNGA because of the strong global condemnation about the vast number of disappearances under impunity of the previous regime in Sri Lanka.
Will the UN also condemn Islamabad for offering terrorists a similar impunity, making them in fact State terrorists?
The UN can make an effort to be more even handed.