Ceylon Today Editorial

Crowds, Political Pulse

04 May 2017

If Monday's May Day crowds is the judge of the political pulse of the people, then former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, currently a UPFA MP from the Kurunegala District and the de facto Leader of the newly formed political party the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), may well be at least the new third force in Sri Lanka politics.

But in the island's political history since the eve of independence in 1947, a third force never ended up as being the first force in Sri Lanka's politics.

Nonetheless, some observers even went to the extent to say that the SLPP May Day Rally at Galle Face Green presided over by Rajapaksa, drew a greater crowd than UNP/UNF Leader and Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe's May Day Rally at Campbell Park, Colombo or UNP/UPFA Leader and President Maithripala Sirisena's May Day Rally at Getambe, Peradeniya, Kandy.

If one looks at Sri Lanka's contemporary political history during the last two decades, it was the JVP which rapidly became Sri Lanka's 3rd force in a matter of eight years after its proscription was lifted by the then President D.B. Wijetunga in 1992, only to fizzle out 10 years later, in 2010.

At the 2000 parliamentary poll, JVP became the third largest political party in Parliament, gaining 10 seats, though far behind the then PA (predecessor of the UPFA) which secured the highest number of seats (107), followed by the UNP (89) in the 225 seat Legislature.

Four years later, at the 2004 Parliamentary poll, the JVP, contesting under the UPFA banner nearly quadrupled their seats in Parliament to 39, with its mother party the UPFA, inclusive of the JVP's 39 seats, leading the pack with 105 seats, followed by the UNP-led UNF (82) and the Tamil minority party the TNA which has its vote base in the North and to an extent in the East, 22.

But six years after, in 2010, the JVP ate humble pie. At that parliamentary poll, contesting under then General Sarath Fonseka's Democratic National Alliance (DNA), the DNA/JVP was able to secure only seven parliamentary seats.

The UPFA which was then led by Rajapaksa came first, winning 144 seats, followed by the UNF (UNP-led) 60, while the TNA became the new third force in Parliament, winning 14 seats.

In the current makeup in Parliament, post-2015 parliamentary polls, the UNF/UNP leads the pack securing 106 seats, followed by Sirisena's UPFA (95), TNA (16) and the JVP (6). TNA Leader R. Sampanthan plays the Opposition Leader's role in the current Parliament, reenacting the drama which took place 40 years ago, when Appapillai Amirthalingam, the leader of TNA's then mother party, the TULF, became the Leader of the Opposition.

At that 1977 parliamentary poll, the UNP-led the way by winning 140 seats of the then 168-seat Parliament, followed by the TULF (18), the SLFP (Leader of the current UPFA coalition) 8, while Jabir A. Cader who contested the then multi-member constituency Colombo Central under the 'eye' symbol, was also elected to power.

If in 1951, the then Leader of the House and Health Minister S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike left the UNP and formed the SLFP because he felt that he couldn't be the UNP Leader on the belief that after the death of the then UNP Leader and Premier D.S. Senanayake, the leadership would pass on to his son Dudley, Rajapaksa, unlike the founder of his party Bandaranaike, has not taken such a decision.

Rajapaksa has not said that he's the Leader of the SLPP. He has neither resigned nor left the SLFP-led UPFA. Instead, the face projected in the new party the SLPP, G.L. Peiris, who goes as its chairman since its founding last year, was promptly sacked from the SLFP, of which he was a member, once he took over the chairmanship of the SLPP.

The problem with Rajapaksa unlike Bandaranaike is his reluctance to lead from the front. Bandaranaike broke away from the UNP in 1951, and five years later, leading a coalition called the Mahajana Eksath Peramuna (MEP), swept the polls at the 1956 general elections, winning 54% of the seats offered. The MEP secured 51 of the 95 seats at that poll.

If the crowd at the SLPP's May Day Rally is a reflection of Rajapaksa's popularity, it may be interpreted that he still has his 48% vote base, where he polled 5.8 million of the 12.1 million valid votes at the 2015 presidential poll, intact.

Rajapaksa who contested under the UPFA ticket, however, saw this vote base, seven months later, at the August 2015 parliamentary poll, cut down by 1.1 million to 4.7 million, whereas the UNF/UNP garnered the highest number of votes, 5.1 million, a clear 400,000 more votes than the UPFA.

Today, the UNP-led UNF and the SLFP-led UPFA have formed a coalition government. Rajapaksa, unlike his founder Leader Bandaranaike has not resigned from the SLFP and, unlike his colleague Peiris, has not been sacked from the SLFP.

The people may look up to Rajapaksa if he resigns from the SLFP and takes over the SLPP lock stock and barrel, instead of allowing the likes of Peiris to be its legal political face. Otherwise, the crowds at his May Day Rally will not mean a thing, politically.

Daily News Editorial

May Day in retrospect

04 May 2017

Joint Opposition stalwarts are all gung-ho about the crowd attendance at their May Day rally at Galle Face. The adrenaline is certainly flowing for people like Wimal Weerawansa, who, dazzled by the crowds, has called for the hoisting of black flags during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's forthcoming visit to the country to attend International Vesak Day celebrations. Another JO stalwart, Udaya Gammanpila, went onto comment that it was their leader Mahinda Rajapaksa's happiest day since his ouster on January 8. Obviously, in the same exultant mood as colleague Weerawansa, he is calling for a day of hartal to demand the holding of a General Election. An election is also badly wanted by Mahinda Rajapaksa purely on the strength of the crowd attendance.

While the JO members could preen themselves on the Galle Face crowd, this, as they well know, is no yardstick for success at a national election. It was a fait accompli for the JO to muster the crowds that they eventually did if it were not to lose face, after bragging that they will fill up the esplanade with the crowds. One recalls the crowd attendance at MR's rallies during the Presidential Election campaign. They were indeed monumental and dwarfed the attendance at the rallies of the Common Candidate, who sometimes had to make do with wayside plots of land following the last minute denial of the official venue. In Polonnaruwa, the home turf of the Maithripala Sirisena, Rajapaksa boasted that it was the largest ever crowd ever to descend on the electorate in the Rajarata, at his rally. The result, the Common Candidate romped home by a majority of over 30,000 votes. It was the same method of mustering the crowds, as witnessed at Galle Face, on May Day, the loot accumulated during the Rajapaksa ten year rule put to good use.

Crowds hardly tell a tale. The UNP for instance was never known to muster sufficient crowds for its election rallies and always fell behind the SLFP and JVP. But this did not mean that it lost the election. In 1982, Hector Kobbekaduwa drew massive crowds to his rallies, with Vijaya Kumaratunga being the star attraction. But JRJ won by over a million votes when the ballots were counted. There is a plausible explanation for this phenomenon. The UNP does not have the sort of voter base that can make it draw its supporters to election rallies. It counts among the bulk of its supporters the business class, the upper middle class and middle class conservative types who are not those who can be bothered about attending election meetings. But come election day they vote en bloc for the Grand Old Party. On the other hand, the SLFP (or the Joint Opposition) commands a different support base where radicals, nationalists and the lumpen types form the bulk of it voters. To such types election rallies and events such as May Day are a welcome diversion from their drudgery and mundane lives. With the JVP it is different. As a cadre based party attendance of all comrades are mandatory and what was witnessed at the BRC grounds on Monday is the sum total of support for the Rathu Sahodarayas.

Be that as it may, the UNP may have even surprised itself by the massive turn up at Campbell Park. Ditto for the SLFP at Getambe. One has to remember that this May Day was held amidst the backdrop of many unpopular measures forced on the public by the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government such as the increase in the VAT, the high price of rice, coconuts and certain essential items. There was also the other issues that were created by Pro-Rajapaksa elements such as SAITM, the spate of doctors’ strikes, ETCA, to name a few. To cap it all, there was the collapse of the Meethotamulla garbage mountain, burying alive dozens of people and rendering hundreds of families homeless, for which the government was unfairly blamed although the problem even predated Rajapaksa rule.

For all that, the people, by and large, have remained faithful to the UNP and President Sirisena led SLFP, of the current Unity Government, given the crowd participation at both rallies, when one would have expected a backlash by the public in the form of diminished attendance. Their combined strength would have easily outstripped the attendance at Galle Face. It is a clear indication that the people are willing to give a chance to the present government to place the country on the right footing and implement the development programmes it has embarked on, the current difficulties and hardships notwithstanding.

Be that as it may, the government should be watchful and not allow the breakdown of law order that may be planned by elements in the JO, emboldened as they are, by the crowd attendance at the May Day rally. Prime Minister Modi will be here as a guest of the government to participate in a noble event. Nobody should be allowed to act in a manner that would mar the occasion.

The Island Editorial

Blues of the Blues

04 May 2017

President Maithripala Sirisena is reported to have called for the appointment of a committee to sort out differences between the UNP and the SLFP with a view to strengthening the unity of the government. (He has a monumental propensity for appointing committees and commissions!) Having got tough with the UNP on some issues such as the bond scams, he wouldn’t have struck such a conciliatory note if not for the scare the Joint Opposition’s successful May Day rally gave the SLFP.

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe must be grinning from ear to ear and rubbing his hands in glee. Now, the SLFP’s split is permanent and it is sure to stand the UNP in good stead at future elections with the JO going it alone. President Sirisena has also become amenable to fence-mending. Lady luck has smiled on Mahinda Rajapaksa, but she is flirting with Ranil!

The UNP threw in its lot with Sirisena at the 2015 presidential election, expecting him to do a D. B. Wijetunga; it wanted him to maintain a low profile, let the Prime Minister run the show, and fade away at the end of his first term. In fact, Sirisena declared, upon being inducted, that he would not seek a second term. But, after savouring power for a few months, he asserted himself to the extent of confronting the UNP. The SLFP-UNP marriage almost collapsed owing to a tug-of-war between him and the PM over the appointment of a new Central Bank Governor. Ministers representing the two main parties have also been at loggerheads on numerous issues with the UNP Cabinet members asking their SLFP counterparts to leave the government.

The UNP is all out to consolidate its power in the government in a bid to ready itself for the 2020 elections. This, it can achieve only by debilitating the SLFP. When media reports said, about two weeks, ago, the PM had ordered that adequate police protection and all necessary facilities be provided for the JO May Day rally at the Galle Face Green, we argued in this space that he was trying to kill two birds with one stone. The UNP would gain politically if the JO failed to bring enough people to fill the Galle Face Green and if the JO succeeded in holding a mammoth rally President Sirisena would get a scare and become more dependent on the UNP, we said.

President Sirisena is now the leader of the SLFP, but, where party members’ allegiance is concerned, he is apparently not in a much better situation than he was before the 2015 presidential polls. Rajapaksa has demonstrated once again, through his May Day muscle flexing, that he not only has the majority of the SLFP MPs on his side but also can mobilise them to achieve his political goal.

President Sirisena is in a dilemma. He cannot give up power after completing the first term for obvious reasons. Many people are now dependent on him for political survival. In case of his retirement in keeping with his pre-election promise, they will face a fate much worse than being ousted from the SLFP. Similarly, his rivals will also go to any extent to make life miserable for him if they capture state power.

It is being argued in some quarters that the DUNF (Democratic United National Front), formed by Lalith Athulathmudali, Gamini Dissanayake and G. M. Premachandra after being sacked from the UNP for an abortive attempt to impeach President Ranasinghe Premadasa, also drew massive crowds to its rallies, but could not achieve its political goal. However, unlike the DUNF, which did not have any sitting UNP MPs within its ranks the JO has as its members about 50 MPs, most of whom represent the SLFP. The SLFP dissidents in the JO haven’t been expelled. The SLFP threatened to take disciplinary action against its MPs if they attended the JO May Day rally. But, now, it is doubtful whether the SLFP leadership will dare take punitive action against them.

President Sirisena’s increasing dependence on the UNP is likely to alienate more SLFPers and make a bad situation worse for the current SLFP leadership. The challenge before the President is to ensure that the SLFP MPs who are currently with him for expediency won’t pole-vault to the other side.