ANOTHER SLFP VICTORY?
11 May 2017It's becoming increasingly clear that increasingly strident demands from within the SLFP Pro-Sirisena faction has been exerting considerable pressure on the President, leading him on successive occasion of late to speak more in terms of spearheading a Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) electoral victory which can only mean that he is being compelled to bow to the demands of senior SLFPers for major ministerial portfolios. This was only to be expected when viewed in the context that relatively senior men in his camp genuinely feel they are being short changed in the allocation of ministerial power positions.
What this portends of course is that the SLFP-UNP partnership will in all probability come to an end by 2020 the latest though not before, irrespective of all the clamouring within the SLFP. This is simply because they need each other to push through radical constitutional reforms if together they continue to desire going through with international commitments to uphold and secure through such radical reforms their collective commitments to the UN, the EU and the major global players to protect fundamental human and political rights and values which the UN and EU in particular have been pressing with un-abating persistence.
As the EU's Envoy in Sri Lanka Tun Lai Margue put it delicately "Within the country, the Sri Lankan Government is in the unenviable position of BEING MANDATED TO CHART A DEFINITIVE COURSE FOR RECONCILIATION THAT RECOGNIZES AN INCLUSIVE AND COLLECTIVE SRI LANKAN IDENTITY".
This is a far cry from the post-independence socio-political status quo of the Sinhala-Buddhist socio-religious-political primacy that has been enshrined in the Constitution, and NOT A COMMON , INCLUSIVE AND COLLECTIVE SRI LANKAN IDENTITY.
That definition suggests a Constitutional upheaval with crisis-level potential for socio-political upheaval as the Sansoni Commission report said over 25 years ago. No wonder then that Margue defined this challenge with the understatement of "Unenviable".
Such radical reform to which the unity government has committed its partnership to is a political powder keg and one cannot blame either Sirisena or Wickremesinghe getting cold feet at the unenviable prospect. The mere attempt will be an explosive weapon handed on a platter to brothers Mahinda and Gotabhaya Rajapaksa . One does not need a great deal of grey matter to know that it can be to unleash a socio-political crisis of unprecedented dimensions in the country to which the government can only respond with military might if it wants to remain in power. Either way, the President and Premier need each other for this daunting prospect that is being shrewdly used as a lever for former top MR loyalists now in Sirisena's Cabinet to continue urging him to desist from action against breakaways who attended MR's May Day rally. Either way, Sirisena finds himself in the inevitable position of having to drink from this poisoned chalice. "His" ministers within the Cabinet and without clamour for a total SLFP Government. They feel that the combined forces seen at separate attendances at Getambe and Galle Face can easily pip the UNP at the post at the next elections. They also know that should that happen, they can all be assured of all the portfolios...and more...as was the Rajapakasa policy to keep everyone happy.
But to date we do not exactly know what the UN, EU and international community are demanding of the government by way of phrases such as "constitutional change" or "scope of reform" and so on.
Margue very naively defined it in her statement that, "throughout the civil war and its aftermath, we have worked with community leaders, civil society leaders, human rights activists to press for the protection of fundamental freedoms and values". Obviously all of this is in relation to the Tamils in the country. THESE EFFORTS ARE IMPORTANT AND THEY WILL DEEPEN.
Unenviable and daunting hardly begin to define the enormity of the challenge facing Sirisena and Wickremesinghe. Besides this fact, the President has on several occasions said the government will not under any circumstance allow war heroes to be tried for any crimes related to the war. How then can he legislate on the reforms which seek to do exactly that? It would be the end of his political career as the entire SLFP would brand him a traitor. Wickremesinghe on the other hand has not said anything that suggest, he agrees with the President on that score. But without sufficient votes in Parliament he can't push through such legislation in an exclusive UNP Government. However, he has been non-committal because it would be in his and the UNP's political plans and aspirations to ensure such legislation goes through so that he can get rid of the Rajapaksas for good. Both Parties therefore find themselves facing a constitutional dead end.
Constitutional reform will fail at a referendum.
An SLFP victory at the next Polls seems to be on the cards.