Ceylon Today Editorial

Kashmir, Economy and Wiggy

02 October 2016

Thinking up solutions to lift the nation out of the Rs 9 trillion debt it was bequeathed by the former regime with a series of hectic visits to Asian-Paciific nations to forge trade agreements which will not only sell Lanka products in those markets but also bring in the vital revenue needed to clip budget deficits to 3 per cent of GDP is one heck of a battle on the hands of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. Forging close trade links with the US and EU, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Australia and Arab Gulf nations and promoting FDI inflows keeps Malik Samarawickreme on a 24x7 rote routine that could be so hectic in mere terms of travel and planning and discussion that ministries under them could well be manned by officials working themselves to the bone.

This is the real tired face of what governance looks like behind the scenes where the cameras don't go.

On the other side is President Maithripala Sirisena grappling with an endless sate of invective and destabilization launched against him personally, and against the unity government in general. This keeps him eternally tangled up with the massive task of conferring day and night with advisors – and that includes ex-President Chandrika Kumaratunga – to come up with ways and means of negating these destabilizing forces mainly spearheaded by the MR camp. Least of all is not his concern about how destabilizing the planned new political party, supposed to be spearheaded by Mahinda Rajapaksa, will prove to be. Certainly, going by the Joint Opposition's track record, one can expect mounting pressures through series of strikes and anti-government demonstrations...all of which will coalesce into one huge destabilizing element.

At a glance then, what one sees in Parliament, and without it, are far too many destabilizing forces which can merge...and which the JO will merge...into a collective assault on the government. As most balanced observers will tell you, the destabilization drive lacks moral or ethical substance. In short, it's destabilization for the sake of destabilization aimed at causing maximum harm to what most citizens and the international community have come to hail as good governance. This was underscored by the many plaudits which President Sirisena received on his recent visit to the US to attend the UN General Assembly sessions.

Into this political maelstrom, have entered two major potentially crisis-ridden factors which add to the government's over-abundant share of woes, both uninvited and inevitable, both at home and abroad.

The government plays its cards close to its chest on the explosive Kashmiri crisis and is yet to say anything about Pakistan Defence Minister Khawaja Asif who said officially on prime time TV: "We have not made an atomic device to display in a showcase. We will 'eliminate India' with nuclear weapons if the country 'dares to impose war' ".

India and Pakistan are on the very brink of war but the Lankan President and Premier, as far as we all know, have not thought it fit to call a Security Council meeting to work out a response to a conflagration, even after India quickly evacuated more than 10,000 villagers living near the border with Pakistan, amid concerns that there could be a military escalation.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government on Thursday ordered federal and state security forces to upgrade surveillance along the frontier in Jammu and Kashmir state, part of the 3,300-km (2,100 miles) border between the nuclear-armed neighbours, where the major Chinese extended Silk Road cross-border 300 kilometre highway, traverses the mountain region, making access by Chinese troops very easy.

The balance has tipped in India's favour with the absence of Mahinda Rajapaksa who would certainly have favourably considered access to Lankan sea ports by Chinese maritime military forces to help Pakistan against India.

This is the extent to which Sirisena had tipped the balance of power in India's favour. Under his regime there will be no question of anti-Indian forces getting access to Lankan waters and bunkering and other facilities. Just last week, the US and Sri Lanka inked an MoU for US ships to access bunkering facilities in the Hambantota Port. That will obviously include US military vessels, surface and submarine, a statement of intent to China and Pakistan.

The Kashmiri crisis was expected in advance. Measures have been taken to add to the pro-US-India military architecture. One needs to read between the lines here. Hambantota's relevance only surfaces in the event of a maritime/air combat scenario.

To top it all off, Northern CM C.V. Wigneswaran (Read TNA!) timed his move demanding federalism knowing well that pressure at this moment in time will draw the maximum benefit, though short of federalism. All those US ship visits to the North can be leveraged and Sirisena will know that for a fact...