Ceylon Today Editorial

Cigarette Price Reduction: Do It Right

25 October 2016

President Maithripala Sirisena and Health Ministry's holy crusade on cigarette consumption seems to be arriving at a flashpoint. Beyond this point, the future forks two ways; the high road which will create a more serious problem or the low road – the complete eradication of cigarette consumption from our society. If the latter comes to pass, Sri Lanka will be the very first country to do so.

But the latter is also a wet dream, thought up by seemingly altruistic politicians, social justice warriors and neo liberals. In other words, it is unachievable. The best a government could do is control the consumption to a certain degree.

Cigarettes are smoked by over 1 billion people, which is nearly 20% of the world population in 2014.
About 800 million of these smokers are men. While smoking rates have levelled off or declined in developed nations, especially among men, in developing nation's tobacco consumption continues to rise.

More than 80% of all smokers now live in countries with low or middle incomes, and 60% in just 10 countries, a list headed by China. Smokers are over half of adult males in Indonesia (57%, but mostly kretek, a local form of cigarette) and China (53% estimated), and nearly half in Bangladesh, though for women the figure is much lower.

The situation in Sri Lanka is not different from anywhere else. It is not too hard to meet at least five cigarette smokers in any given day in Colombo. Among them are teenagers and a certain percentage of the country's youth as well.

Health statistics indicate that smoking leads to the death of 60 Sri Lankans on a daily basis (21,000 annually) and that the government spends between Rs 10 million to Rs 15 million to treat a single cancer patient.

The government's very commendable decision to hike up the price of a cigarette to Rs 55 once the Value Added Tax is imposed on the product is the latest frontline assaulter in the crusade.

According to the Ministry, cigarette consumption had reduced by four to five per cent due to the last price increase. Therefore, on the assumption of gradual reduction in consumption, the government has taken this step to increase the price furthermore.

We said this is a flashpoint event. Either this will create a more serious, uncontrollable black market for cigarettes in the country or it would genuinely decrease the consumption all together. Cigarettes are not found any more for cheap prices in every other tea shop or petti kade.

And due to the price increase, there is a definite reason for the consumption of cigarette to go down; people will simply not be able to afford it.

The teenagers and the youth who have been consuming cigarettes will be forced to stop because they would not have a proper income of any sort to afford cigarettes. Cigarettes will eventually become a luxury product to own. However, it will not be completely eradicated anytime soon.

This is where the black market would come into play. Once the market runs out of affordable cigarettes, a market will eventually rise up to replace it – it will be illegal, the manufacturing process will be dodgy and the final product will be deadly for consumption.

Furthermore, once the cigarette market is replaced by the black market, the government will have to brace itself for a rise in criminal activities as well, for cigarettes will be the next drug and addicts will do almost anything to get the 'next hit'.

This is a flashpoint event. And this is why the government has to be prepared to do what is necessary to face what will come next. So far, in the preliminary rounds, and if handled properly this incident can have positive benefits. This price reduction has the potential of creating a better society, a better country in the long run. But if handled poorly, this could have catastrophic consequences. Something evil will come this way.