Daily News Editorial

Boxing Day Tsunami: 12 years on

26 December 2016

Just a few days ago, our region received another tsunami warning after an earthquake occurred off Papua New Guinea. Although a tsunami did not materialise and no warning was issued for Sri Lanka itself, the news kept everyone on edge, exactly 12 years after the Boxing Day Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004.

For a nation that did not even know the word ‘tsunami’ existed before 2004, we are now a nation that is fully aware of the dangers posed by these massive tidal waves. It was a truly horrific event that will live in our collective memory for generations to come. More than 40,000 Sri Lankans perished in the disaster which affected 11 Indian Ocean countries, killing nearly 300,000. There have been a few tsunamis in later years, most notably the one in Japan in 2011, but nothing can come close to the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami in terms of the sheer devastation and loss of life.

One of the main reasons for the massive loss of life in the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami was the lack of an early warning system. Although the US geological Survey tried to warn the Indian Ocean countries, a combination of missteps prevented the message from going to the right eyes and ears. The result was a tragedy of huge proportions. Today, the situation is much different and better.

The Indian Ocean region has a sophisticated tsunami information gathering and distribution network that cost billions of dollars. All cellular operators have tested their capability to mass broadcast SMS messages on tsunamis to their subscribers. Warning siren towers have been erected in all coastal areas, with paths to safety clearly marked. Television and radio stations are under instructions to broadcast any warning messages, for those who may not have access to phones.

Worldwide, scientists are beginning to unravel more details and secrets about tsunamis. Sophisticated computer modeling programmes can pinpoint how a particular tsunami would unfold. Although earthquakes and tsunamis cannot be predicted with any degree of accuracy with the currently available technology, scientists now have a better understanding of how a tsunami wave would behave depending on its origin intended destination and type.

For example, experts recently said that waves up to 80ft (25 metres) high could destroy New York and Miami in a mega-tsunami if a landslide takes place in Spain, on the other side of the ocean. They say the mega-tsunami could be triggered if there is a landslide in the Canary Islands – an archipelago belonging to Spain located in the Atlantic Ocean just 100 Km from Morocco’s west coast. New York, Boston and Miami, as well as the Caribbean, could be wrecked by the killer wave that could also hit Central and South American countries.

Scientists have also found that a massive tear in the Earth’s crust could cause massive tsunamis and mega-quakes. The rip in the sea floor runs through the Ring of Fire – a treacherous spot in the Pacific Ocean known for deadly quakes and volcanic activity. The discovery of just how big the new fault – 60,000 square kilometres in size and off the north coast of Australia – has confirmed fears that a huge tremor is imminent. On the other hand, scientists now believe that an asteroid that hits the ocean may not result in the kind of destruction portrayed in Hollywood blockbusters such as Deep Impact and Armageddon.

While Japan, from where the very word “tsunami” (Big Wave in Japanese) comes, leads the world in tsunami research, many other countries are actively engaged in the field. Sri Lankan universities and research labs must take a more pro-active interest in tsunami research, given Sri Lanka’s increased vulnerability to earthquakes and tsunamis. Several tremors have been felt in Sri Lanka post-2004. Thus we must be prepared for bigger earthquakes and possibly tsunamis. Eternal vigilance is the answer.

Technology is racing ahead in the quest to predict tsunamis at least a few hours ahead. Scientists plan to use multiple navigation-satellite constellations such as EU’s Galileo, China’s BeiDou and other systems from India which will be operational by 2020 to vastly improve measurements of ocean wind speeds, sea-surface roughness and the height of waves. This should benefit tsunami research.

However, focusing on the technology and research aspect alone will not address the problem. A tsunami is a very human problem. A large number of people from fishermen to hotel employees depend on the sea and coast for their bread and butter. They cannot be separated from the sea. But there should be better regulations and laws to minimize the damage and loss of life that could be caused by a tsunami. The then Government imposed a 100 meter buffer zone for constructions in 2005 following the tsunami, but it is not clear whether this law is being implemented now. We cannot afford to take chances with another tsunami. Nature cannot be stooped, but we can be prepared to minimize the effects of its fury.